Spurs: Totally Relevant Statistical Reasons Why Fourth Place Is Ours

We've crunched the numbers and found that, while disappointing, the City loss isn't disastrous - they're still on course for fourth place...
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Spurs: Why Man City Loss Is Irrelevant In Our Race For Fourth Place

With 15 games left to play the Premier League seems to split into 4 sub divisions. Spurs look to be in a straight fight for fourth place with Liverpool, Everton and Manchester United.  In the grand scheme of things the result against Manchester City last night, while depressing, was irrelevant.

To know where you are going, you need to know where you are. So where are Spurs?

Where do Tottenham Hotspur rank?

It’s hard to find measures that track club performance accurately, otherwise we’d all be beating the bookies, but there are some impartial ones that give us some clues.

Overall club revenue gives an idea of success through sponsorship, ground size & expansion and also increased reward from league and cup revenues. Delloite recently published their football money league for 2014.

Here is how the top 6 clubs measure:

Another measure comes from Transfermarkt they provide dynamic player and team values. A look through shows it’s not perfect, but it’s not miles out either. Top 6 here as follows:

OK just numbers, but it tells us Arsenal are currently over performing and Manchester United are underperforming – so go figure. It also highlights that for Spurs to finish Fourth would be punching above our weight and either Manchester United or Liverpool would need to underperform.

What’s the target for Fourth Place?

Here are the fourth place points totals for the last 6 years:

The points spread across the division this year indicate a highest ever fourth place points total perhaps in the 74-76 point range.


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What does this mean for Spurs?

The 73 points Spurs achieved last season was a club record, meaning this year we’d have to break that again.

So rounding up we need to be thinking about an average of 2 points a game or even a bit higher. Right now we have:

OK so a bit behind the curve. Can we catch up?

Here are our last 15 games:

Win games against lesser competition, be solid at home and the answer looks like yes, despite everything it will be possible to record our highest points total in the Premier League. Only 3 of the remaining games are against clubs above us in the league.

I saw Spurs get thumped yesterday by a rampaging Manchester City team, which, so far is by miles the best team to come to the Lane this season. The work they did without the ball matched their brilliance with it. But they were at full strength – all bar Negredo on the bench. You could argue the Spurs team was missing half of its starting eleven. Players like Sandro, Vertonghen, Paulinho, Townsend & Kaboul would all have very strong cases to replace players like Benteleb, Sigurdsson, Dawson and an injured Dembele. City may well still have won, but the game would have been much closer I am sure

The reality of last night proves:

  • We are not Championship contender, were we ever?
  • City are playing football from another planet
  • It’s amazing what a team you can build when you spend £500m on players

So cheer up Spurs fans we are still very much in the fight for Champions League, despite all the insanity of the last two seasons.

Follow Adam on Twitter, @AdamWright1991